Monte Carlo
What is your favorite Monte Carlo simulator?
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Portfolio Visualizer financial goals for Monte Carlo simulation. Testfol.io for portfolio analyzer.
Use multiple tools and use each as a piece of the answer. Be careful with boldin, empower, and others that don’t do true historic analysis and often make returns conservative.
Empower retirement planner has a free Monte Carlo based retirement planning tool. Boldin seems to be the most popular paid package that also does Monte Carlo simulation. I've used both and prefer Boldin because it has many planning features in addition to Monte Carlo for comprehensive planning. FiCalc is also free and very useful, but it's simulations are historical data based. I like FiCalc because it allows you to apply a range of different withdrawal strategies to the historical data set.
The Broke, Rich Dead Calculator is my favorite. I usually uncheck the Dead box. It is good information, but not something I can control. The calculator allows a lot of customization. If you are retiring before social security, it allows you to add the social security as added income and the age you will receive it. If you are planning to spend extra for the first ten or fifteen years - the Go-Go Years - the calculator allows for an amount (or several) for a period of time. It also allows for flexibility - if the balance goes down x% cut spending by y%.
Remember the percentage of success is also the percentage that you worked too long.
Thanks somehow at 4% for 40 years 70 stock, 28 bonds, 2 cash 28% tax, it shows a 43% success rate
Ficalc app
I like Portfolio Charts for free tools that use historical data.
Target Accuracy – Portfolio Charts
Retirement Spending – Portfolio Charts